The sky was crying out large splattering raindrops quicker than my windshield wipers could sweep them away. Traffic was usual for a Sunday morning in Portland, Oregon, as I headed north on I-205, and eventually into Washington state. My destination: Hamilton Mountain Trailhead. My purpose: to meet up with meteorologist and fair weather hiker, Steve Pierce, for an afternoon hike and interview.
But the rain was hammering and I was beginning to wonder if this thing would happen. Steve had told me straight-out-of-the-gate that he didn’t hike in the rain, so he probably wouldn’t be up for a downpour.
What is up with the Weather?
Weather: atmospheric conditions present at any given time, on any given point on Earth. Such a simple definition for such a complex, life-altering phenomenon. The weather can turn a good day into a bad one, build up our snowpack, exacerbate forest fires, leave us exposed, fearful even. And in my case, possibly defer a hike?
The weather was doing its thing. So I drove and crossed my fingers (figuratively), tracing the path of the Columbia River to my right as I headed east on Highway 14. By the time, I reached the trailhead, conditions weren’t looking much better. By the time Steve pulled up in his little red convertible, we were still in the thick of it.
Windows rolled down and raindrops falling all around, I met Steve Pierce for the first time, sitting side by side in our vehicles. After some quick introductions, he pulled out his phone to check the weather radar. “Another 15 minutes or so and the rain would pass,” Steve told me with confidence.
A Career
The hike was on. We just needed to wait out the rain for a bit. So Steve slid into my car and told me how he got started in the world of weather.
Beginnings
Inspired by events like the 1980 Mount Saint Helens eruptions, from a young age Steve was interested in weather. “I was fascinated with which way the ash clouds were going,” said Steve. When ash fell in the Vancouver-Portland, Steve was only seven but he remembers the experience vividly. In particular, he recalled spending time with his brother sliding around on their bikes on a slurry of ash and water that felt akin to snowfall. Coupled with a couple of major snowfall events earlier that same year, the appeal of meteorology hung heavy in Steve’s young mind, like (dare I say) rain in a cloud-ready to fall.
Self Taught
Throughout his youth, Steve studied the weather on his own. He read every book he could get his hands on, including every meteorology book at his local library. Later, when the internet was a thing his studies continued.
Early on he also tried his hand at forecasting. In 5th grade, he started writing a weekly weather forecast for his elementary school’s parent bulletin. At home, Steve would broadcast the weather from the family fireplace hearth through his Mr. Microphone. He also had a weather station and was a devoted weather spotter for Channel 8. By 9th grade, he found himself on the cover of the regional paper (The Columbian) in an article titled: “Teens Career Forecast is Clear.”
You’re Hired
Fast forward to 2014, after attending Mt. Hood Community College (1994) and Washington State University, Vancouver (2001), a family, a prior communications career, and“fever” for investing in real estate, Steve finds himself at a crossroad in his life. At this point, Steve is an active member and President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), but otherwise had made his career outside of meteorology, when he gets “the call.” It was local news anchor, Jeff Gianola, who remembered him from 20 years prior, when Steve was a college intern, with a job opportunity: Meteorologist for KOIN 6 News. Steve is instructed to: “get on a suit and come to the station” if he is interested in this rare opportunity. Adorned in basically the only formal suit Steve owned at the time, he goes into the station for a mock-up weather forecast. He is hired on the spot!
Time to Hit the Trail
This brings us to today. Steve and I had been talking for several minutes in the car at this point so that the windows were fogged up and the air a bit warm and humid. The rain, on the other hand, had finally stopped. I suggested that we hit the trail.
The Hike
- Trailhead: Hamilton Mountain Trailhead
- Distance: approximately 2.5 miles round trip to Rodney Falls
- Elevation Gain: approx. 450 feet elevation gain
- Details: The trail to Rodney Falls is an easy out and back hike. Those that want more of an adventure may continue to the top of Hamilton Mountain for a total of 7+ miles and 2100+ feet elevation gain . There is ample parking at the trailhead and restroom facilities available. Parking requires a WA Discover Pass.
Basic Science
Steve and I started our hike with a couple of photos before making our way up the forested trail. The sun was coming out and the only water falling around us was from the surrounding vegetation.
“See I promised it was going to be good,” Steve smiled.
As we moved at a quick pace, I asked Steve to tell me about what it takes to understand the weather. What does it take to forecast the weather? He said two things: 1) basic science and 2) interpreting computer models.
“Anyone can be a weather enthusiast,” replied Steve, “but sort of where-the-rubber-meets-the-road is really understanding meteorology on a scientific level. How are weather patterns created? How do they evolve?”
He went on with an example. “We live in a part of the country where the Columbia River Gorge is huge in determining our weather. Without the Gorge, we would rarely get snow in Portland.” He explained that the Cascade mountains create a barrier that separates the cold, dry continental air mass that sits over the continent during the winter. The Gorge is a gap in that barrier. “The gap is how we tap into that cold air.”
And this is where we get into some of the basic science of meteorology. Cold air is dense and tends to sink, and warm air rises and expands. Air also moves from low to high pressure.
So, if we look at the science, it makes sense that in the winter, the cold air from the east would be more than happy to rush through the Columbia River Gorge following the pressure gradient, on its way to the relatively warmer ocean. Then, if there is some moisture on top of that, bring on the snow!
Computer Models
In addition to knowing the basic science, “interpreting computer weather models” is essential to meteorology, especially in modern times.
Computer weather models take observations from weather stations and weather satellites and assimilate them into a 3-D grid. They then use mathematical equations that describe the physics of atmospheric variables, like pressure, temperature, wind, and moisture, to make predictions about future atmospheric conditions. Thus, weather models depend on both the equations used and the observation. The better both of these play together the more accurate the forecast.
Steve shared that the models he prefers are a set found at the University of Washington, developed by “long-standing atmospheric science professor, Dr. Cliff Mass.” NOAA also has some high-resolution models too.
Computer models have truly revolutionized weather forecasting, making accurate forecasting possible. This is the “leading-edge technology” we are talking about. Available to all, these models make forecasting the weather a breeze (pun intended) compared to the past. The Labor Day winds and forest fires, for example, were forecasted to the hour by weather models.
Again, most of these models are available for those who are interested.
Why Weather?
And who isn’t interested?
The weather has always been kind of a big deal—affecting our past, present, and future.
As Steve puts it, “Weather affects everybody. It affects your everyday life, your job if you work outside—agriculture, for instance.” The weather today can also affect the future.
For example, the amount of winter snow in the Pacific Northwest, predicts future water supply in the region. All that snow that dumped down in the valley and mountains a few weeks ago wasn’t just weather for now, but water for later. We even saw remnants of the snowfall during our hike along the trail.
“I just saw the latest snowpack for Mt. Hood,” said Steve, “and we are at 100-110% of normal.” And that is good news for the upcoming summer water needs across the Pacific Northwest.
A Tale of Two Clouds
The forested trail continued into a short clearing where I could feel the sun warming my skin. In his cavalier way, Steve noted this change in weather. He had promised it would be nice.
To the right, there was a bit of a view out toward the river and a basalt cliffside, but my attention was drawn to the clouds overhead. I asked Steve, “What kind of clouds are these?”
“These are cumulous,” replied Steve.
Clouds are a personal favorite of mine. And growing up in Oregon, there never seems to be a shortage of clouds to look up at. So of course, I needed to know more, so I asked Steve to elaborate.
As he explained it, there are many types of clouds, but two of them are the most interesting to him: cumulus and stratus.
Cumulus
Cumulus clouds, like much of what we saw during our hike, are convective. What does that mean? It means that the droplets of moisture that make up the cloud are heated up by the surface of the Earth and rise up. Just like a pot of boiling water, cumulus clouds “puff-up” as they rise, like bubbles breaking the surface. Cumulus clouds are also a sign of an unstable atmosphere and that severe weather may be on its way.
Stratus
Stratus clouds on the other hand are low to the ground. Unlike cumulus clouds, stratus clouds are stable and flood in from coastal areas in thick layers of moisture.
According to Steve, “Stratus are unique to the west coast.” During the summers, the air above the ocean is colder and denser than inland. This colder air can be held at bay during the day, but by 6 p.m., as Steve puts it, “mother nature’s air conditioning kicks in,” and the cooler coastal air drifts inland through gaps in the coast range, including the Columbia River Gorge. Oftentimes, this cool onshore flow will also bring in stratus clouds, filling-in the valley overnight.
Clashing Air
While cumulus clouds continued to drift east through the Gorge, Steve and I continued our hike in the same direction, leaving the cloudy peek-a-boo view behind.
Moving swiftly up the trail now, my mind was racing, as I attempted to assimilate all that was being said. One word stuck in my mind: “unstable.” Steve had thrown this word around a bit. If today was “a bit unstable,” as Steve suggested, what does that mean? So, of course, I asked.
“An unstable air mass, simply put, is very buoyant air,” Steve replied. “Unstable air is usually what follows a cold front. And a front is the clash of two air masses, warm air ahead and cold air behind.” The clash between the cold and warm air builds up clouds as the colder, denser air mass replaces the warmer, less dense air mass, resulting in cooling and condensing of water droplets that form clouds and can produce rain.
A Big Difference
Steve further explained that the bigger the difference in temperature between the air masses, the more unstable the air mass can become. And the greater the instability, the bigger the potential for convective storms.
In the Pacific Northwest, the biggest storms tend to occur in the spring as there is more heating of the Earth by the Sun, creating more frequent and larger temperature differences between air masses and in between the different layers of the lower atmosphere, say below 25,000ft.
Extreme Weather
However, despite the Pacific Northwest’s reputation for weather in the form of rain, we do not have the extreme weather that you might see, in say, the midwest.
In the midwest, supercell thunderstorms develop and spin up tornadoes because of the clash between cold continental air from Canada and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. In the Pacific Northwest, this sort of instability just doesn’t happen often. The differences in temperatures over the Pacific Ocean land are just not that significant. As Steve put it: “We just have relatively cold” air.
Cold to the Core
Instead, the Pacific Northwest’s version of a twister is a much calmer cousin—the cold-core funnel cloud. A cold-core funnel (while also sounding like a new exercise routine) is the Pacific Northwest version of a tornado. Simply put, it is a vertical “rotating” column of air in the atmosphere that is especially cold, unstable, and almost always trails just behind the recent passage of a cold front.
“After a front has passed, we typically have westerly flow at the upper level of the atmosphere, and a southerly or southwesterly flow up the Willamette Valley”, Steve explained. “Just enough wind sheer between the two, along with geographic enhancements in the valley, and you can spin up a horizontal column of unstable air and then turn that column vertical due to the wind sheer present.” Hence, a tornado.
If these cold-core funnel clouds touch down, though rare, they can cause EF-0 or EF-1 tornado damage.
In fact, according to Steve, the deadliest tornado west of the Rockies hit Vancouver, WA on April 5, 1972. Rated as an EF-3 (F-3 back then) tornado, winds were 165-210 miles per hour. Six people died that day in Vancouver when a supermarket and bowling alley roof collapsed. The roof and walls of near-by Peter S. Ogden Elementary School were also damaged.
Large Bodies of Water
However, deadly storms are anomalies in the Pacific Northwest. “We don’t really have that kind of volatile weather,” explained Steve, “because we have the Ocean.” The Pacific Ocean, as is the case with any large body of water, is slow to heat up and slow to cool down, making it an excellent moderator of climate.
In the summer, when the inland starts to heat up, the Ocean lags behind. In the winter, temperatures drop inland, but the Ocean retains its heat. The result is cooler summers on the coast and warmer winters.
The moderating effect keeps Portland and other Willamette Valley temperatures from reaching extremes as well. Hiking in the Gorge, even in early March, is pleasant and cool, but not too cold (at least relatively), all thanks to the Ocean to the west.
Weather Patterns
One of the first things Steve talked about when I asked him about his interest in meteorology was the importance of weather patterns.
Here is what he said:
“What I am most passionate about with meteorology is I know things happen in cycles. In other words, when we saw the big snow event coming just a few weeks ago, I thought back to previous events where I knew this happened in the past… I remembered I have seen this pattern before. Weather is a set of different patterns that come and go.”
In Oregon, typical patterns of weather result in a climate that is warm and dry in the summer and cool and wet in the winter, and overall pretty moderate. But, on the other hand, we can also predict deviations from the norm, like the winter storm Steve explained earlier.
Much too Hot
Another example of these patterns of predictable deviations occurs in the summer.
Typically during the summer in Oregon, there is a ridge of high pressure over the ocean that blocks storms between June and October, while prevailing winds from the northwest, carry cooler ocean air onshore as a high-pressure system spins clockwise in the northern hemisphere. This is the norm.
However, there are also usually a few days of 90+ degree days, where things don’t cool down. In Oregon, you can expect a couple of brushes with high-temperature days in the summer—it’s a pattern. This occurs when a low-pressure system from the Southwestern United States creates a thermal heat trough that moves into western Oregon. This turns the airflow counterclockwise, directing the winds offshore toward the coast. Not only that, but the downslope flow of air of the Cascade mountains results in “compressional heating,” a thermodynamic process that heats up the Willamette Valley of Oregon even more.
A Numbers Guy
Now one thing that became pretty obvious early on is that Steve is a numbers guy. He is self-professed “good with numbers” and bad with names. I am not great at either so I was impressed how easily he rattled off dates when I can barely remember my own kids’ birthdays.
“Hottest temperature in Portland: 107o F on August 10th, 1981,” Steve rattled off as we marched along. “Coldest temperature in Portland: -3o F on February 2nd 1950.”
After tip-toeing our way through a mud patch, he went on:
“Average temperature in Portland is about 53o F… about the same temperature as the Pacific Ocean… It balances out.”
Superlatives
Steve continued with the superlatives:
- Wettest months: November & December (a near “tie” at 5.60” and 5.40” respectively).
- Most active weather (thunderstorms): March through May
- Foggiest month: October
- Biggest change in temperatures: Also October. “With an average range of high’s from 71o F on the 1st to 58 o F on the last day of the month.”
- Best Month: October (in Steve’s opinion, due to the change of season and falling of leaves)
Chasing Waterfalls
As Steve and I waxed poetic about the beauty of fall foliage in the Pacific Northwest, the rushing sound of water filled our senses. We were nearing the base of the middle of Rodney Falls located on Hardey Creek. Here, we decided to stop the interview for a bit to check out this fun natural feature.
Steve and I first took an upper trail to the left to get a close view of one of the tiers of the multi-tiered waterfall, before heading down to the base of the fall where you cross over Hardey Creek to continue the hike. With so much snow and rainfall recently, nature’s tap was on full blast and the falls were spectacular.
A Cliffside View
Just beyond the falls, Steve and I continued our hike a few hundred feet up to a viewpoint looking out at the Columbia River Gorge. From here you could see the north-facing wall of the canyon rising up on the Oregon side of the Gorge, still covered in snow.
Looking out at the basalt rock cliffs, Steve and I shifted our discussion toward the landscape. (Literally, as we faced the canyon wall.)
“Geographic features have an effect on weather patterns,” Steve said. The Gorge plays a part in shaping weather patterns in the valley. The Pacific Ocean moderates temperatures all along the western margin of the country and beyond.
Rain Shadow
There are many geographic features that influence the weather in any location, but one that is particularly important to the Pacific Northwest is our mountain ranges. The Coast Range and the Cascade Range both run north-to-south in the region, creating barriers for winds and weather.
Mountain ranges, like those in Oregon, create what is called a rain shadow—a dry landmass on the opposite side of the mountains from which the air is flowing. As cool, moisture-rich air from the coast travels up each mountain range’s western flanks (also known as the windward side), the air cools and moisture condenses forming clouds and precipitation. Once the air makes it to the eastside (also known as the leeward side), the air has been wrung out like a sponge. As the air descends further it also heats up and evaporation increases.
In Oregon, this means that it gets drier as you head east across the state. According to Steve, the coast averages 60 inches of precipitation, Portland 37, and Bend less than 10.
This also means that in the east you experience a very different ecology than in the west. Instead of the shaded, wet Douglas-fir forest, we were hiking through, hiking the east would take you through open, dry shrub-steppe habitat, or perhaps a Ponderosa Pine forest. Hiking in the east means applying a lot more sunscreen and packing more water.
Sunrise & Sunset
After sufficient time at the viewpoint, Steve and I decided it was time to turn around and head back. And as the sun was setting on our time together, I couldn’t help but ask Steve about literal sunsets—can we use the weather to predict the best sunrises and sunsets?
Yes you can!
“The first thing I would do is look at satellite imagery,” said Steve, “…nothing coming off the coast is a good sign.” If there is a ridge of high pressure over us that shuts down the onshore flow that equals a good sunrise or sunset.
Steve also recommended winter, as the best time to see sunsets. “The atmosphere is more mixed up,” he explained, “so you get really clear air.”
He also warned that sunrises can be more tricky though because of the morning stratus clouds that move off the coast and through the valley at night. These clouds can put a damper on a good sunrise. Of course, when in doubt you can always head east. The clouds can’t make it inland that far.
The Road Home
After Steve and I finished our hike, I climbed back into my car and began the long drive home west through “the Gorge” and south into “the Valley.”
On my way home the pleasant weather turned from partly cloudy to stormy in what felt like an instant. Hail fell from the cumulus clouds overhead and I am pretty sure I saw a flash of lightning off in the distance. Steve was also stuck in Washougal, WA. by a torrential downpour, thunder, and lightning.
The stormy weather was short-lived, however; and as I pulled into my neighborhood the sun was setting, turning the clouds a soft shade of pink. Seeing the painted sky brought me a sense of calm following the chaos of the weather-filled day. I thought, “How very appropriate; this is what it is like to hike with a meteorologist.”
Steve Pierce is a part-time meteorologist at KOIN 6 News based in Portland, Oregon. He grew up in Vancouver, WA where he first developed a passion for weather. Steve studied Television Production at Mount Hood Community College and Business and Communications from Washington State University, Vancouver. He is also the President of the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society since 2012.